Turkey and Paraguay head into their match after disappointing opening defeats. Turkey suffered a surprising 2-0 defeat to Australia, despite enjoying 72% possession and 30 shots on target. However, they were met with a phenomenal performance from goalkeeper Patrick Beech, who saved eight shots. Paraguay, meanwhile, was routed by the United States (1-4) – the South Americans conceded three goals in the first half and were unable to recover from an early own goal. This match is essentially a knockout stage for both teams: a defeat would leave little hope of advancing to the knockout stages.
The statistics from the first round favor Turkey: they outscored Australia in expected goals (xG) (1.33 to 0.77), created two big chances, and dominated the entire match. Paraguay, on the other hand, demonstrated a complete inability to contain the American attack and a disciplinary breakdown, receiving five yellow cards. A key factor will be the return of Kenan Yıldız to the starting lineup, who doubled Turkey's attacking output in the second half against Australia: without him, the team created 0.44 xG, compared to 0.92 xG per 45 minutes with him. The FIFA rankings also favor Turkey (22nd place versus Paraguay's 41st).
However, a bet on "X2" (Paraguay to win) looks extremely attractive for several reasons. Firstly, Paraguay are an extremely difficult opponent, having gone nine matches unbeaten in 2026 World Cup qualifying and beating Argentina and Brazil. Secondly, the Turks could be psychologically damaged by missed chances in the first round – 32 shots in the second match against Paraguay failed to produce a goal.
