Vitor Pereira's "Foresters" have hit peak form at a crucial moment in the season. The team is unbeaten for eight matches, and thrashed Sunderland 5-0 in the final Premier League matchday. At home, Nottingham has become a fortress: under their new formation, opponents are creating 30% fewer scoring chances, and Morgan Gibbs-White has scored five goals in his last three games. Meanwhile, Unai Emery's Aston Villa, despite dominating European competition (nine consecutive Europa League wins), have struggled on the road, losing three of their last six away matches.
Despite being the nominal favorites thanks to Emery's experience, the visitors approach the derby in a weakened state. Key defensive midfielders Boubacar Kamara and Alisson are out, and the goal they conceded to Fulham at the end of the week exposed the Birmingham City defense's vulnerability to fast attacks. The hosts have looked strong in head-to-head matches at the City Ground, while Villa often struggles with concentration in the first leg of two-legged ties.
Given Nottingham's phenomenal home spirit, the crowd's support, and their eight-game unbeaten run, Pereira's side will at least not lose. A handicap bet insures a draw, which would be an excellent result for the hosts heading into the return leg. Expected score: 1-1 or 2-1 for the Foresters.
