Based on the league table and current form, Lazio (9th place, 44 points) enters the match as the paper favorite, 12 points ahead of Fiorentina (16th place, 32 points). However, the Violets have won three of their last four home matches, including a 2-1 victory over Inter, and have clearly improved. Meanwhile, Lazio has been inconsistent on the road: they have lost four of their last five away matches, conceding in each.
The hosts' motivation will be key. Fiorentina are just three points above the relegation zone and desperately need points. Their last head-to-head meeting (January 2026) ended in a 2-2 draw, but Fiorentina are unbeaten at home against Lazio for three consecutive matches. Given that the visitors are missing key players in midfield (Vecino is suspended), the hosts' attack, led by Belotti, is capable of exploiting this vulnerability.
Lazio lost focus at the end of the season, losing two of their last three matches, while Fiorentina have taken seven points out of a possible nine at home. The most likely correct score is 2-1 for the hosts.
