Despite Helmond's historically favorable record against their opponents (8 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses in 16 head-to-head matches) and a 4-2 win in their last match, it's unlikely they'll be a goal-scoring extravaganza in this match. The visitors' psychological advantage is offset by their modest away record.
The main argument in favor of the "Under 3" bet is the attacking weaknesses of both teams. While Jong AZ concedes a lot at home (an average of 2.15 goals per game), their scoring is extremely inconsistent. Helmond, on the other hand, plays cautiously on the road: in 5 of their last 7 away matches, they've scored no more than 2 goals. The visitors' defense, however, appears relatively solid when they're not forced to open up.
Given Jong AZ's disastrous form (only 2 points in their last 10 home matches), it will be difficult for the hosts to score twice, and Helmond isn't prone to away defeats. The total number of goals is unlikely to exceed two.
