Ocleppo has played very little and not impressively in recent years. All of his appearances at the Challenger series tournaments end with a knockout in the first or second rounds. In this Italian tournament, the level of competition is slightly lower, but many opponents still regularly play in higher-class contests.
One of such opponents is just Chepelev, having played a huge number of matches this season with impressive win-loss statistics - 67/35. For the last six months, he has been playing at Challenger series tournaments, where he looks more than worthy even against higher-rating opponents.
Chepelev is still progressing, so the rating is just a matter of time. Now he has much practice against high-level players, which must give him an advantage over Ocleppo.
Our prediction: Chepelev to win. We recommend the “2 Win” bet, odds 1.77
