Austria enters this match as the clear favorite, despite personnel absences. In the opening round of the Nations League, the Austrians defeated Israel 3–1, dominating across all key metrics: they recorded an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 2.78 and managed 42 touches in the opponent's penalty area. Their home record during the qualifying campaign is also impressive, with 10 points out of a possible 12. Even with Alaba, Sabitzer, and Baumgartner missing, the squad's depth allows Ralf Rangnick to rotate players without a significant drop in quality.
Kosovo, conversely, is showing progress but remains inconsistent against stronger opponents. The team lost to Turkey in the World Cup qualifying playoffs (0–1) and fell to the Czech Republic in a friendly match. The Kosovars are less confident in away games, and the absence of captain Amir Rrahmani—who has retired from international football—weakens their defense. Although Kosovo also won their Nations League opener against Ireland (1–0), facing Austria in Vienna will be a much tougher challenge.
Statistical models estimate Austria's probability of winning at 65.6%, reflecting the hosts' significant advantage. Playing on home soil, Austria is capable of imposing a high tempo and creating enough chances to secure the three points.
