Both teams are approaching this head-to-head matchup in extremely low spirits, but for different reasons. The United States suffered a surprising defeat to Finland (2-6), allowing five goals in less than two periods, but creating a ton of chances (32 shots). Germany, meanwhile, hasn't earned a point after three matches, boasting the weakest attack of the tournament—only two goals scored and 11 allowed.
The history of these head-to-head matches clearly favors over-goals. Each of the last five official matches between the United States and Germany at the World Championships and Olympics has seen over 5.5 goals. At the February Olympics, the Americans crushed the Germans 5-1, and in a friendly game in May, the score was 5-2 in favor of the United States. Germany's defense has looked frankly weak in this tournament: six goals against Switzerland and six against Finland.
Considering that the US will be aggressively attacking to redeem themselves for their setback, and that Germany needs to push forward despite defensive losses to maintain its playoff chances, we expect an open, high-scoring game. The absence of key German scorers (Draisaitl and Stützle are absent) won't prevent the Americans from scoring five or more goals.
