This is the central match of the round in the Champions League race – the teams are tied for 4th and 5th place with 59 points. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 11 head-to-head meetings with Aston Villa, but their last two matches at Villa Park ended in high-scoring draws (2-2 and 3-3). Remarkably, Villa have scored against Liverpool in six of their last seven home matches, while the visitors have scored at least twice in each of their last eight visits to Birmingham.
Both teams are inconsistent in form: Villa have won only one of their last five Premier League matches, but are picking up almost two points per game at home. Liverpool, meanwhile, have conceded in five of their last seven matches and have one of the worst defensive records in the league's top seven (48 goals conceded). Defensive personnel issues are also mutual: the hosts are without Kamara and Onana in midfield, while Konate is questionable for the visitors, and Bradley, Endo, and Alisson are also still unavailable.
Considering that a draw would be enough for both teams to secure a top-five finish, and three of the last four head-to-head matches at Villa Park have seen at least four goals, we expect an open game. Liverpool's defense is inconsistent, and Villa under Emery are always dangerous at home, although the hosts are mentally preparing more for the UEFA Conference League final.
