Southampton are in fantastic form, unbeaten for 14 matches and scoring in their last 16. Arsenal, despite being the favorites (with a 78.1% win probability according to the Opta supercomputer), enter the game with serious personnel issues and a necessary rotation, as the UEFA Champions League is just around the corner.
A key factor in favor of the over-all total is Arsenal's massive injury situation. Up to 13 starting players could miss the match due to injury, including the entire central midfield: defenders Gabriel and Saliba, midfielders Rice, Ødegaard, and Öze, and winger Saka. This will inevitably impact the Londoners' defensive cohesion, which will be much more vulnerable with a weakened squad. Southampton, who are fighting for promotion to the Premier League and have already eliminated Fulham, will certainly take advantage of their chances in front of the visitors.
At the same time, Arsenal's attack, even with the rotation (16-year-old prodigy Max Douman is expected to feature), is capable of finding the net against the hosts. Over 2.5 goals have been recorded in 14 of the Gunners' last 25 away matches, and the "both teams to score" bet has been successful in 14 of those games this season. Given that both teams are in excellent form and will be looking for a win, while their defenses are weakened by injuries, betting on over 2.5 goals seems the most logical choice for this quarterfinal.
