Estonia is the clear underdog in the group, having conceded 13 goals in five matches. The team has serious defensive issues, as demonstrated by their crushing 6-0 defeat in the first leg against Italy. Home conditions are unlikely to significantly improve the situation.
Italy boasts one of the most prolific attacking teams in the group, having scored 12 goals in four matches. The team demonstrates high class and motivation, especially against weaker opponents, where they regularly post big wins.
Given the difference in skill between the teams and the vulnerability of Estonia's defense, the Italians are capable of scoring over 2.5 goals on their own. Moreover, the visitors have a good chance to consolidate their position in second place today, as Norway and Israel will also be playing.
